Convergence between the Eora, WIOD, EXIOBASE, and OpenEU’s consumption-based carbon accounts

  • The work in Task 4.2 (Assessing and reducing uncertainties), looking at stochastic uncertainty across the various MRIO databases, has resulted in the publication:

    Moran, Daniel; Wood, Richard. (2014) Convergence between the Eora, WIOD, EXIOBASE, and OpenEU’s consumption-based carbon accounts. Economic Systems Research, Vol. 26/Issue 3.

    Abstract:

    In this paper, we take an overview of several of the biggest independently constructed global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases and ask how reliable and consonant these databases are. The key question is whether MRIO accounts are robust enough for setting environmental policies. This paper compares the results of four global MRIOs: Eora, WIOD, EXIOBASE, and the GTAP-based OpenEU databases, and investigates how much each diverges from the multi-model mean. We also use Monte Carlo analysis to conduct sensitivity analysis of the robustness of each accounts’ results and we test to see how much variation in the environmental satellite account, rather than the economic structure itself, causes divergence in results. After harmonising the satellite account, we found that carbon footprint results for most major economies disagree by<10% between MRIOs. Confidence estimates are necessary if MRIO methods and consumption-based accounting are to be used in environmental policy-making at the national level.

  • Last update: 02 June 2017